After beating Schalke convincingly (3-0) last weekend, Nürnberg (1FCN, or "Der Club") is finally getting a bit of the love they certainly deserve. Der Club's recent run of play in the Bundesliga is, perhaps, currently topped only by Bayern's historic chevauchée through the league table. At this international break, 1FCN are only four points off an Europa spot – a surprising turnaround for a team sitting dangerously close to the relegation zone at the Holiday break (14th place).
To find out, I chatted over email with Jon Goulding of the 1FCNUK blog, who has even written an account of his 1FCN fandom.
As I recently made the case in my recap of Nürnberg's 2-1 win over FCA, Der Club provide one of the last big narratives unfolding during the 2012-2013 Bundesliga campaign's wind down. What other reason do you need to care? The human brain is wired for following narratives, so jump aboard while there is still some left. It's time to meet your story.
Currently, Nürnberg sit in places 10-11 on the Bundesliga table with 34 points. Forget about winning at the home ground Grundig-Stadion, where Der Club have lost only two matches all campaign (incidentally, both losses occurred during their dark-night-of-the-soul four game losing streak in the early part of the Hinrunde). Other clues to this turnaround narrative lurk in the league table itself: Nürnberg has only conceded 32 goals – 4th best in the league. However, Der Club have only managed to score 29 of their own goals – 4th worst in the league. Hence their goal difference (GD) of -3.
You can blame the -3 GD on that dark Hinrunde run in which they lost 7 games, including a devastating four losses in a row. From this valley of the shadow of death, they clawed back to a -5 GD, garnering 5 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses by the Holiday break. But the early signs of Spring were there: the month of November saw Nürnberg stop the blood-letting and they even began winning a few games. This turnaround narrative has since crystallized in the Rückrunde, as 1FCN have won 3, lost 1, and drawn 5. Impressively, they've only lost two games since December 1st.
Three main characters seem to emerged in this narrative: 1) the baleful Nürnberg defense, 2) the magic or Hiroshi Kiyotake, and 3) the co-managing of Michael Wiesinger and Armin Reutershahn.
Besides Bayern, you'd be hard-pressed to find a team who is consistently so hard to beat. The ESPN Pardon The Interruption-style explanation is that Nürnberg plays really really really good defense, are "hard to break down," and "wear you out." That is, Der Club are cussed and dogged. Nobody wants to play the team who grinds the hell out of you. Frequently, you can find Der Club pulling 8-9 players in defense along with a plethora of physical challenges on the ball, plus disciplined zonal marking. In Nürnberg, everybody plays defense.
These factors define the contours of the defensive-minded narrative around 1.FCN. And in one obvious sense the narrative is true: Nürnberg doesn't concede many goals (only 32 total thus far). Throw out Bayern's ineffable outlier of 11 goals conceded and 1.FCN is a top three Bundesliga side in preventing goals.
One reason they concede so few goals is the under appreciated goalkeeping of 34 year Raphael Schäfer. 1FCNUK's Jon Goulding argues that Schäfer has been one of the Bundesliga's most underrated keepers for a few years now and would command more praise if 1.FCN were a more glamorous side. Schäfer's defense concedes 1.26 goals a game, while the man himself averages 3.1 saves a game. Meanwhile, Schäfer makes over 2.5 saves for every goal his side concedes.
Alright. But what do these numbers mean? Well, Schäfer's save rate is very high, which is fortunate for 1.FCN, but could also mean that his team is giving up too many shots on goal in the first place, and/or that Schäfer is a bit lucky too. For example, Nürnberg give up an average of 12.8 shots on goal per game, 7th most in the league, so more Schäfer saves are going to be required than, say, Bayern which only gives up an average of 7.9 shots on goal per game. Of course, these numbers also reflect 1.FCN's philosophy of giving their opponents large chunks of possession, so necessarily their opponents will generate more chances than, for example, Bayern or Leverkusen. Regardless, Schäfer's save rate allows the other defenders to play with more confidence in physically challenging the ball through take-ons, marking, or tackles. So Goulding argues there's a ramifying effect that Schäfer's save rate seems to have on the team.
Indeed the Nürnberg-as-defensive-machine narrative is also born out in possession numbers. 1.FCN average only 47% possession each game and has had 50% or more of possession in only 9 games this campaign. (Incidentally, they only won 1 of those games!) So the team's defensive DNA is unmistakable in this regard. For example, I was struck by their success recently in allowing FC Augsburg (FCA) a lion's share of possession, which confounded FCA's own defensive identity, contributing to Nürnberg's 2-1 win on the road. When given the choice, as against FCA, Nürnberg plays this defensive game by default.
However, it is difficult to spot exactly how this defensive game succeeds with the usual defensive metrics. Admittedly, we are in the earliest of stages in forming hypotheses about what defensive metrics might mean (e.g. is it really a good thing that one's team has such a high tackle rate?), yet some interesting observations do emerge from the data. For example, Nürnberg commits the 4th most fouls in the league (17.5 per game), perhaps a residue of their physical, ball-challenging, style.
Interestingly, 1.FCN is 3rd worst in the league for interceptions made per game (17) and 5th worst for total tackles made (21.3 per game with an 81% success rate – slightly above league average). But probably for good reason. My hypothesis is that their defending of passing lanes and the ball is so solid that they don't need to rely on desperate tackles or interceptions to stop attackers.
When looking at other defensive metrics, I wonder if similar hypotheses can be drawn. Here's how their other defensive numbers break down so far:
In case you were wondering, in terms of efficiency, Nürnberg performs slightly above average here. Finally, take a look at their "average defensive actions" taken pie chart:
In my perusal, Nürnberg's pie chart looks like similar to teams near the bottom of the of the chart – i.e. their "clearance" rate is higher than the other actions. What does this mean? My hypothesis here is that, given how much possession 1.FCN concedes, their opponents are getting more play into the box than on average, meaning that Nürnberg's clearance rate is necessarily higher. Or perhaps they've simply been a wee bit lucky in clearing out otherwise menacing chances.
Beyond the macro team-level data, Goulding points to the surprisingly effective relationship between the centerback pairing of Per Nilsson and the vastly underrated Timm Klose, who, after Kiyotake, is probably Der Club's most valuable player. Indeed, the Swiss defender is involved at or near the top of every defensive metric for the club with his intercepting of passes, clearances, aerial challenges, take-ons, tackles, or winning offsides. He does all this while averaging only 1 foul per game (he's even scored two goals!). Nilsson is only just a cut below Klose in his abilities, which creates the anchoring wall of Nürnberg's defense. Insert the indomitable Timmy Simons in front of this wall and 1.FCN is hard to crack indeed. Although Simons' impact has been dulled a bit by Nürnberg's switch to a 4-1-4-1 lineup (Simons being the lone defensive midfielder), he still wins a majority of his challenges, while completing 80% of his passes, most of which are key forward passes. Finally, Nürnberg is a team that, optically, looks good playing defense as its back four (and sometimes "back eight"!) keep a tightly patterned shape as a unit, while the midfielders consistently track back to play defense.
And then there's Hiroshi Kiyotake, the revelation from Japan. You could even reasonably argue that without Kiyotake, Nürnberg doubtlessly would be in the relegation zone, as the guys on The Talking Fussball podcast recently did. Or that without Kiyotake (and other Japanese starlets) the Bundesliga would not offer Japanese as one of the four language options for viewing its site.
Electrifying is a moniker frequently used to describe his play, in case you've missed his 1.FCN coming out party so far.
Indeed, Kiyotake easily leads his side with 64 scoring chances created (over a third of 1.FCN's total chances created), according to Squakwa.com's metrics:
Of course, these "chances created" or "key passes" stats categories are murky as we analytically work out what meaningful passing is; however, think about this stat representing Kiyotake's ability to get the ball into the box. He leads the team with 8 assists and is tied with a team best 4 goals, which some might think is underwhelming given the "vividness effect" surrounding his play (i.e. all we seem to remember is that he scores brilliant goals, like his recent volley against FC Augsburg). Kiyotake's impact is more impressive, however, when you get away from his goal tally. Consider three visuals of his positioning:
The contours of Kiyotake's movement is clear in these images: he starts right, then angles across the middle into the left – an arrow slicing the field. Many scoring chances are created through play like this, as Kiyotake feeds the ball into the box (for example, he's third in the Bundesliga for accurate crosses into the box).
Besides chances created, he excels in his ability both to track back to the ball defensively as well as menace the opponent's goal area. For example, look at his sprints and freekick opportunities in the game against Hoffenheim to see his larger contribution to 1.FCN's play:
Yet Kiyotake's running rate seems economical. Other teammates tend to cover more ground, which perhaps means that Kiyotake is selective in choosing moments to make those arrow-like runs across the pitch. This movement forms the backbone of his contributions to 1.FCN, I would argue. It's smart and dangerous.
But is Nürnberg a one man show? Perhaps not as much as you think. Goulding observes that Nürnberg's seeming over-reliance upon Kiyotake in the Hinrunde has been corrected with more balanced and flexible play during the Rückrunde. In particular, Kiyotake's role now is that of co-creator, rather than that of originator of all things attacking, as other options have emerged in generating threats, like Feulner, Esswein, or Timmy Chandler.
The third and final piece of Nürnberg's turnaround seems to be the new guys running the show, manager Michael Wiesinger and co-trainer Armin Reutershahn, who replaced the departed Dieter Hecking during the Holiday break. Hecking, who had been Der Club boss since 2009, left for VfL Wolfsburg, which brought him closer to his wife and kids, not to mention a bigger pay day.
Wiesinger and Reutershahn have been at the helm during Nürnberg's cussed run of form, although Wiesinger is quick to note that Hecking laid the foundation for 1.FCN's success, as Goudling explained. However, Wiesinger, unburdened from the line-up "lock in effect" that managers can get mired in, has been quite the experimenter with moving his men around the pitch. Goulding points to the positioning of Hanno Balitsch at rightback (during Chandler's absence), which shifted the American to attacking midfield when he returned. Or Wiesinger's insertion of Markus Feulner and Mike Frantz into the attacking midfield. Goulding has also noticed that more versatility seems to be required in the formation that Wiesinger prefers, which shifts greater responsibility upon individual players to track back on defense or play unit football, as individual pieces in a cohesive unit. This philosophy works given the deeper and healthier squad Nürnberg is playing with now, contrasted with what Hecking had to work with during the Hinrunde.
Line-up wise, Wiesinger has shifted away from Hecking's staid 4-2-3-1 formation to the 4-1-4-1 formation I've already mentioned. Indeed, the contrast is striking in terms of results: in the former, 1.FCN's record was 2 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses; in the former, 1.FCN's record is 6 wins, 5 draws, 1 loss.
(What has become the most common starting XI during the Rückrunde, although in the last match against Schalke, Balitsch started at rightback and Chandler started at right attacking midfielder – a fantastic pairing.)
Of course, there's no simply causation between record and formation, just an important correlation, as there also is between Nürnberg's success and other factors, like a healthier squad, more versatile and responsible play from the squad, or Kiyotake now being better supported. Regardless, the 4-1-4-1 formation seems like a more effective platform for eliciting surprising wrinkles from the squad, like Feulner's unsung work rate, or Balitsch's play at rightback.
Of course in the Bundesliga, success still breeds its own cruel irony (unless you're Bayern, or now Dortmund). Qualifying for Europe might mean that the talent who got you there will be ravaged by the monied Champion's League clubs, which means a limpid Europa or even Champion's League run. Of course, I'm talking mainly about Kiyotake here. Ironically, the more Nürnberg does not rely on his play, the better off their future is, given his inevitable departure. Moreover, the same could be said for Klose's play at centerback, although here the issue isn't reliance on his play, as much as it is grooming other options, like Dabanli, for his position.
Speaking of other options, fans of Der Club, like Goulding, eagerly watch when young talents like Muhammah Ildiz and Berkay Dabanli sub on toward the end of matches. Indeed, Ildiz appears to be Simons eventual replacement, since the Turkish youngster is solidly built, possesses great speed, and a pounding shot on goal. Perhaps Ildiz is a Gündogan (a former 1.FCN player) 2.0? Goulding even imagines Wiesinger unleashing the next evolution of formations with a future 4-4-2, which harnesses the youngsters' talents, but might also decrease the scoring pressure on Tomas Pekhart up top. Who knows, Nürnberg's bus parking days might be far behind them at that point.
But damn the future. Nürnberg is putting together a fine run of form presently. They've created their own story – one of the most satisfying surprises of Rückrunde. For the sake of this narrative, I'm rooting for defense, counter-attacks, Kiyotake, and bus parking, as a fascinating subplot to Bayern's coronation.
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